Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: State of the art and future vision
Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties and
model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties …
model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainties …
Progress and challenges in forecast verification
E Ebert, L Wilson, A Weigel… - Meteorological …, 2013 - Wiley Online Library
Verification scientists and practitioners came together at the 5th I nternational V erification M
ethods W orkshop in M elbourne, A ustralia, in D ecember 2011 to discuss methods for …
ethods W orkshop in M elbourne, A ustralia, in D ecember 2011 to discuss methods for …
[HTML][HTML] Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum
CRPS Estimation in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 133 Issue 5 (2005) Jump to Content …
CRPS Estimation in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 133 Issue 5 (2005) Jump to Content …
[图书][B] The interaction of ocean waves and wind
P Janssen - 2004 - books.google.com
This book was published in 2004. The Interaction of Ocean Waves and Wind describes in
detail the two-way interaction between wind and ocean waves and shows how ocean waves …
detail the two-way interaction between wind and ocean waves and shows how ocean waves …
[HTML][HTML] A spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme and its impact on flow-dependent predictability in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
J Berner, GJ Shutts, M Leutbecher… - Journal of the …, 2009 - journals.ametsoc.org
Berner, J., FJ Doblas-Reyes, TN Palmer, G. Shutts, and A. Weisheimer, 2008: Impact of a
quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and …
quasi-stochastic cellular automaton backscatter scheme on the systematic error and …
TIGGE: Preliminary results on comparing and combining ensembles
YY Park, R Buizza, M Leutbecher - Quarterly Journal of the …, 2008 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is a World Weather
Research Programme project to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1‐day to 2 …
Research Programme project to accelerate the improvements in the accuracy of 1‐day to 2 …
[HTML][HTML] Increasing the skill of probabilistic forecasts: Understanding performance improvements from model-error representations
J Berner, KR Fossell, SY Ha, JP Hacker… - Monthly Weather …, 2015 - journals.ametsoc.org
Increasing the Skill of Probabilistic Forecasts: Understanding Performance Improvements from
Model-Error Representations in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 143 Issue 4 (2015) Jump to …
Model-Error Representations in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 143 Issue 4 (2015) Jump to …
Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast‐calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts
Forecasts provided by the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project
were compared with reforecast‐calibrated ensemble predictions from the European Centre …
were compared with reforecast‐calibrated ensemble predictions from the European Centre …
Forecast verification
DS Wilks - International geophysics, 2011 - Elsevier
Forecast quality is evaluated through examination and manipulation of the joint frequency
distribution of forecasts and their corresponding observations. Full examination of this …
distribution of forecasts and their corresponding observations. Full examination of this …
Seven years of activity in the field of mesoscale ensemble forecasting by the COSMO-LEPS system: main achievements and open challenges
A Montani, D Cesari, C Marsigli… - Tellus A: Dynamic …, 2011 - Taylor & Francis
In this work, the main characteristics of COSMO-LEPS, the Limited-area Ensemble
Prediction System developed in the framework of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling …
Prediction System developed in the framework of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling …