In this paper, we investigate whether there are benefits in disaggregating GDP into its
components when nowcasting GDP. To answer this question, we conduct a realistic out-of …

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes. Since imports fluctuate heavily
over time, they are difficult to forecast and reliable leading indicators are needed. Our paper …

Along with the deepening of globalization and economic integration, economic agents face
the challenge on how to extract useful information from large panels of data for forecasting …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic
activity in Germany by explicitly taking into account the supply or production side and the …

This paper examines whether labour market forecasts can be improved by using
disaggregated information. We construct vector-autoregressive models for employment by …

In an increasingly data-rich environment, the use of factor models for forecasting purposes
has gained prominence in the literature and among practitioners. Herein, we assess the …

We propose a modeling approach based on a set of small-scale factor models linked
together in a cluster with linkages derived from Granger causality tests. GDP forecasts are …

O objetivo deste artigo é apresentar de uma forma exemplificativa e sucinta a metodologia
subjacente ao exercício de previsão de curto prazo para a atividade económica …

We propose a modelling approach involving a series of small-scale factor models. They are
connected to each other within a cluster, whose linkages are derived from Granger-causality …

Are they really important? Inventory investments are just a tiny part of GDP spending: in
developed economies, their share fluctuates around 1%, which is hardly observable among …