Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey

E Castelnuovo - Journal of Economic Surveys, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

Financial uncertainty and real activity: The good, the bad, and the ugly

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo, S Delrio… - European Economic …, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper quantifies the finance uncertainty multiplier (ie, the magnifying effect of the real
impact of uncertainty shocks due to credit frictions) by relying on two historical events related …

Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach

A Cesa-Bianchi, G Thwaites, A Vicondoa - European Economic Review, 2020 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic and
financial variables in the United Kingdom using a new series of high-frequency monetary …

Global financial uncertainty

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor
framework that jointly models global, regional, and country‐specific factors. We quantify the …

[HTML][HTML] Robust Bayesian inference in proxy SVARs

R Giacomini, T Kitagawa, M Read - Journal of Econometrics, 2022 - Elsevier
We develop methods for robust Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions
(SVARs) where the parameters of interest are set-identified using external instruments, or …

Domestic and global uncertainty: A survey and some new results

E Castelnuovo - 2019 - papers.ssrn.com
This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (ie,
country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews …

Economic uncertainty and population health: insights from emerging markets and developing countries

L Liu - Frontiers in Public Health, 2023 - frontiersin.org
This study employs a Bayesian panel vector autoregressive model to examine the impact of
economic uncertainty on public health, using an annual, country-level panel dataset of 103 …

Asymptotically valid bootstrap inference for proxy SVARs

C Jentsch, KG Lunsford - Journal of Business & Economic …, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
Proxy structural vector autoregressions identify structural shocks in vector autoregressions
with external variables that are correlated with the structural shocks of interest but …

Downside and upside uncertainty shocks

M Forni, L Gambetti, L Sala - Journal of the European Economic …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
An increase in uncertainty is not contractionary per se. What is contractionary is a widening
of the left tail of the GDP growth forecast distribution, the downside uncertainty. On the …

Identification of SVAR models by combining sign restrictions with external instruments

R Braun, R Brüggemann - Journal of Business & Economic …, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
We discuss combining sign restrictions with information in external instruments (proxy
variables) to identify structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. In one setting, we …