This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of
inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies …

With recourse to archival, printed primary, and secondary sources, this paper reconstructs
global real interest rates on an annual basis going back to the 14th century, covering 78% of …

This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be
improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core …

We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to
interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other …

This paper develops a bivariate model of inflation and a survey‐based long‐run forecast of
inflation that allows for the estimation of the link between trend inflation and the long‐run …

We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend
inflation and the inflation gap. We apply our model to 7 developed economies and 21 …

Modeling nominal interest rates requires to take into account the effective lower bound
(ELB). We propose a flexible time‐series approach that includes a “shadow rate”—a …

The rate of inflation fell far less over the period 2007-2013 than in the period 1979-1985
despite similar large increases in the unemployment rate. This paper asks why. Possible …

With the concept of trend inflation now being widely understood to be important to the
accuracy of longer-term inflation forecasts, this paper assesses alternative models of trend …

A trend-cycle BVAR decomposition investigates the role of different slow-moving trends–ie,
globalization, expectations, automation, labor demand and supply–in shaping the slow …