Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
SM Mathis, AE Webber, TM León, EL Murray… - Nature …, 2024 - nature.com
Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal
influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting …
influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting …
Scoring epidemiological forecasts on transformed scales
Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates
The time-varying effective reproduction number R t is a widely used indicator of transmission
dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of R t can be obtained from …
dynamics during infectious disease outbreaks. Timely estimates of R t can be obtained from …
Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical
practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can …
practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can …
Prediction uncertainty validation for computational chemists
P Pernot - The Journal of Chemical Physics, 2022 - pubs.aip.org
Validation of prediction uncertainty (PU) is becoming an essential task for modern
computational chemistry. Designed to quantify the reliability of predictions in meteorology …
computational chemistry. Designed to quantify the reliability of predictions in meteorology …
Multi‐model prediction of West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease with machine learning for identification of important regional climatic drivers
KM Holcomb, JE Staples, RJ Nett, CB Beard… - …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of mosquito‐borne illness in the continental
United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors …
United States (CONUS). Spatial heterogeneity in historical incidence, environmental factors …
Human judgement forecasting of COVID-19 in the UK
Background In the past, two studies found ensembles of human judgement forecasts of
COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational …
COVID-19 to show predictive performance comparable to ensembles of computational …
Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021
During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and
response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID …
response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID …
Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest
Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and
interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and …
interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and …
Forecasting influenza hospital admissions within English sub-regions using hierarchical generalised additive models
Background Seasonal influenza places a substantial burden annually on healthcare
services. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic limited the transmission of seasonal …
services. Policies during the COVID-19 pandemic limited the transmission of seasonal …