The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect
parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To …

We review the debate on the monetary and fiscal policy measures that were adopted in
response to the pandemic shock in advanced economies, as well as others that could be …

Estimation of the actual and projected level of the neutral interest rate is a central issue in
the application of modern monetary theory in the practical context of monetary policy. Views …

Este estudo apresenta estimativas da taxa de juro natural da área do euro para os últimos
50 anos. Os resultados são obtidos com base numa versão mais geral do modelo de …

La crisis del COVID-19 ha presentado desafıos sustanciales para macroeconomistas y
hacedores de polıtica. En particular, un choque macroeconómico de esta magnitud …

Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2021 update Page 1 Bank of Canada staff
analytical notes are short articles that focus on topical issues relevant to the current economic …

This study presents estimates of the euro area natural interest rate for the last 50 years. The
results are obtained using a more general version of the Holston et al.(2017) model adjusted …

This study is the first in the country to quantify the contemporaneous and long-term effects of
temperature shocks on output growth and other channels of economic activity as well as on …

The natural rate of interest, sometimes referred to as the neutral rate, or R*, is the real rate of
interest consistent with real output equal to its potential and with stable inflation. This paper …

Incoming data in 2020 posed sizable challenges for the use of VARs in economic analysis:
Enormous movements in a number of series have had strong effects on parameters and …