This paper presents a toolkit for generating optimal policy projections. It makes five
contributions. First, the toolkit requires a minimal set of inputs: only a baseline projection for …

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the power of forward guidance at different
horizons, shedding new light on the strength of the “forward guidance puzzle”. Our …

Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the
economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, expectations are unobserved …