Uncertainty before and during COVID‐19: A survey

E Castelnuovo - Journal of Economic Surveys, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the
relationship between domestic (ie, country‐specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and …

More than a feeling: Confidence, uncertainty, and macroeconomic fluctuations

L Nowzohour, L Stracca - Journal of Economic Surveys, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Economists, observers, and policy‐makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a
potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper, we provide three contributions to this …

On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area

P Meinen, O Röhe - European Economic Review, 2017 - Elsevier
Investment fell sharply in the euro area after the financial crisis and has not yet returned to
pre-crisis levels in many core economies. Focusing on the four largest euro-area countries …

Rational heuristics? Expectations and behaviors in evolving economies with heterogeneous interacting agents

G Dosi, M Napoletano, A Roventini, JE Stiglitz… - Economic …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and
action rules within an agent‐based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms …

Uncertainty and exchange rate volatility: Evidence from Mexico

G Bush, GL Noria - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper analyzes the effect of different types of uncertainty by implementing an in-depth
case study of Mexican peso US dollar exchange rate volatility. The paper exploits unique …

Uncertainty and deviations from uncovered interest rate parity

A Ismailov, B Rossi - Journal of International Money and Finance, 2018 - Elsevier
It is well-known that uncovered interest rate parity does not hold empirically, especially at
short horizons. But is it really so? We conjecture that uncovered interest rate parity is more …

Uncertainty across volatility regimes

G Angelini, E Bacchiocchi, G Caggiano… - Journal of Applied …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
We propose a nonrecursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks that exploits breaks
in the volatility of macroeconomic variables and is novel in the literature on uncertainty. This …

Common business cycles and volatilities in US states and MSAs: The role of economic uncertainty

R Gupta, J Ma, M Risse, ME Wohar - Journal of Macroeconomics, 2018 - Elsevier
This paper analyses the role of a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty
(EPU) in explaining time-varying co-movements in economic activity and volatility of 48 US …

Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach

H Chuliá, R Gupta, JM Uribe, ME Wohar - Journal of International Financial …, 2017 - Elsevier
In the wake of the recent financial crisis, a growing literature measures, and analyses the
impact of uncertainty on international financial markets. These studies are primarily based …

Global financial uncertainty

G Caggiano, E Castelnuovo - Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor
framework that jointly models global, regional, and country‐specific factors. We quantify the …