Emergent constraints on climate sensitivities
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in
projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with …
projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with …
The PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments: preliminary results and comparison with the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations
M Kageyama, SP Harrison, ML Kapsch… - Climate of the Past …, 2020 - cp.copernicus.org
The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM,~ 21,000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating
how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those …
how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those …
On structural errors in emergent constraints
BM Sanderson, A Pendergrass… - Earth System …, 2021 - esd.copernicus.org
Studies of emergent constraints have frequently proposed that a single metric alone can
constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic emissions. The prevalence …
constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic emissions. The prevalence …
[HTML][HTML] 地球气候敏感度研究的现状和未来
周天军， 陈晓龙， 左萌， 江洁 - 第四纪研究, 2023 - dsjyj.com.cn
周天军, 陈晓龙, 左萌, 江洁. 地球气候敏感度研究的现状和未来[J]. 第四纪研究, 2023, 43 (2):
604-624. doi: 10.11928/j. issn. 1001-7410.2023. 02.25引用本文: 周天军, 陈晓龙, 左萌, 江洁 …
604-624. doi: 10.11928/j. issn. 1001-7410.2023. 02.25引用本文: 周天军, 陈晓龙, 左萌, 江洁 …
[HTML][HTML] Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models
Climate sensitivity to CO 2 remains the key uncertainty in projections of future climate
change. Transient climate response (TCR) is the metric of temperature sensitivity that is most …
change. Transient climate response (TCR) is the metric of temperature sensitivity that is most …
[HTML][HTML] Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6?
M Schlund, A Lauer, P Gentine… - Earth System …, 2020 - esd.copernicus.org
An important metric for temperature projections is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS),
which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature change caused by a doubling …
which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature change caused by a doubling …
Simulating miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic multi‐model ensemble (MioMIP1)
Abstract The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained,
polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically …
polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically …
Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes
The paleoclimate record provides a test-bed in which climate models can be evaluated
under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used …
under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used …
[HTML][HTML] Comparing methods to constrain future European climate projections using a consistent framework
Political decisions, adaptation planning, and impact assessments need reliable estimates of
future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different …
future climate change and related uncertainties. To provide these estimates, different …
[HTML][HTML] Emergent constraints on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: Do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually …
An emergent constraint (EC) is a statistical relationship, across a model ensemble, between
a measurable aspect of the present-day climate (the predictor) and an aspect of future …
a measurable aspect of the present-day climate (the predictor) and an aspect of future …