[HTML][HTML] 集合预报的现状和前景
杜钧 - 应用气象学报, 2002 - html.rhhz.net
综合论述了近年来已在国际上引起高度重视的新一代动力随机预报方法———集合预报.
随着计算机技术的迅猛发展和由于大气初值和数值模式中物理过程存在着不确定性的事实 …
随着计算机技术的迅猛发展和由于大气初值和数值模式中物理过程存在着不确定性的事实 …
New trends in ensemble forecast strategy: uncertainty quantification for coarse-grid computational fluid dynamics
Numerical simulations of industrial and geophysical fluid flows cannot usually solve the
exact Navier–Stokes equations. Accordingly, they encompass strong local errors. For some …
exact Navier–Stokes equations. Accordingly, they encompass strong local errors. For some …
[HTML][HTML] Using Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles
AE Raftery, T Gneiting, F Balabdaoui… - Monthly weather …, 2005 - journals.ametsoc.org
Ensembles used for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-error
correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper proposes a statistical method for …
correlation, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper proposes a statistical method for …
Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness
T Gneiting, F Balabdaoui… - Journal of the Royal …, 2007 - academic.oup.com
Probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables take the form of predictive densities or
predictive cumulative distribution functions. We propose a diagnostic approach to the …
predictive cumulative distribution functions. We propose a diagnostic approach to the …
[图书][B] Forecast verification: a practitioner's guide in atmospheric science
IT Jolliffe, DB Stephenson - 2012 - books.google.com
Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an
indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a …
indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a …
[HTML][HTML] Decomposition of the continuous ranked probability score for ensemble prediction systems
H Hersbach - Weather and Forecasting, 2000 - journals.ametsoc.org
Some time ago, the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) was proposed as a new
verification tool for (probabilistic) forecast systems. Its focus is on the entire permissible …
verification tool for (probabilistic) forecast systems. Its focus is on the entire permissible …
Stochastic super-resolution for downscaling time-evolving atmospheric fields with a generative adversarial network
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been recently adopted for super-resolution,
an application closely related to what is referred to as “downscaling” in the atmospheric …
an application closely related to what is referred to as “downscaling” in the atmospheric …
[HTML][HTML] Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation
Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum
CRPS Estimation in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 133 Issue 5 (2005) Jump to Content …
CRPS Estimation in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 133 Issue 5 (2005) Jump to Content …
[HTML][HTML] Perspectives on digital elevation model (DEM) simulation for flood modeling in the absence of a high-accuracy open access global DEM
Open-access global Digital Elevation Models (DEM) have been crucial in enabling flood
studies in data-sparse areas. Poor resolution (> 30 m), significant vertical errors and the fact …
studies in data-sparse areas. Poor resolution (> 30 m), significant vertical errors and the fact …
[HTML][HTML] Interpretation of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts
TM Hamill - Monthly Weather Review, 2001 - journals.ametsoc.org
Interpretation of Rank Histograms for Verifying Ensemble Forecasts in: Monthly Weather Review
Volume 129 Issue 3 (2001) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo …
Volume 129 Issue 3 (2001) Jump to Content Jump to Main Navigation Logo Logo Logo Logo …