Inferring the differences in incubation-period and generation-interval distributions of the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2

SW Park, K Sun, S Abbott, R Sender… - Proceedings of the …, 2023 - National Acad Sciences
Estimating the differences in the incubation-period, serial-interval, and generation-interval
distributions of SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to understanding their transmission …

Inferring time-varying generation time, serial interval, and incubation period distributions for COVID-19

D Chen, YC Lau, XK Xu, L Wang, Z Du… - Nature …, 2022 - nature.com
The generation time distribution, reflecting the time between successive infections in
transmission chains, is a key epidemiological parameter for describing COVID-19 …

The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants

SW Park, BM Bolker, S Funk… - Journal of The …, 2022 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Inferring the relative strength (ie the ratio of reproduction numbers) and relative speed (ie the
difference between growth rates) of new SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to predicting and …

[HTML][HTML] A statistical framework for tracking the time-varying superspreading potential of COVID-19 epidemic

Z Guo, S Zhao, SS Lee, CT Hung, NS Wong, TY Chow… - Epidemics, 2023 - Elsevier
Timely detection of an evolving event of an infectious disease with superspreading potential
is imperative for territory-wide disease control as well as preventing future outbreaks. While …

Estimating epidemiological delay distributions for infectious diseases

SW Park, AR Akhmetzhanov, K Charniga, A Cori… - medRxiv, 2024 - medrxiv.org
Understanding and accurately estimating epidemiological delay distributions is important for
public health policy. These estimates directly influence epidemic situational awareness …

Intermediate levels of asymptomatic transmission can lead to the highest epidemic fatalities

SW Park, J Dushoff, BT Grenfell, JS Weitz - PNAS nexus, 2023 - academic.oup.com
Asymptomatic infections have hampered the ability to characterize and prevent the
transmission of SARS-CoV-2 throughout the pandemic. Although asymptomatic infections …

Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases

K Charniga, SW Park, AR Akhmetzhanov… - PLoS computational …, 2024 - journals.plos.org
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical
practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can …

Detecting changes in generation and serial intervals under varying pathogen biology, contact patterns and outbreak response

R Pung, TW Russell, AJ Kucharski - PLOS Computational Biology, 2024 - journals.plos.org
The epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission have changed over the
pandemic due to emergence of new variants. A decrease in the generation or serial intervals …

Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts

NM Linton, AR Akhmetzhanov, H Nishiura - Epidemics, 2022 - Elsevier
Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections have been associated with
substantial presymptomatic transmission, which occurs when the generation interval—the …

Disentangling the role of virus infectiousness and awareness-based human behavior during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union

MA Capistrán, JA Infante, ÁM Ramos, JM Rey - Applied Mathematical …, 2023 - Elsevier
In this work, we manage to disentangle the role of virus infectiousness and awareness-
based human behavior in the COVID-19 pandemic. Using Bayesian inference, we quantify …