The cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) plays a key role in the EU fiscal surveillance
framework. It started off in a supporting role in the shadow of the headline deficit and, before …

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real‐time data.
This literature can be broadly divided into four groups that focus on:(1) the statistical …

This paper describes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a fraction of
non-Ricardian agents in order to estimate the effects of fiscal policy in the Euro area. The …

Eurozone members are supposedly constrained by the fiscal caps of the Stability and
Growth Pact. Yet ever since the birth of the euro, members have postponed painful …

Abstract ARE OFFICIAL OUTPUT FORECASTS BIASED? We point out that official forecasts
of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and …

The paper studies forecasts of real growth rates and budget balances made by official
government agencies among 33 countries. In general, the forecasts are found:(i) to have a …

Historically, many countries have suffered a pattern of procyclical fiscal policy: spending too
much in booms and then forced to cut back in recessions. This problem has especially …

The macroeconomic literature on automatic stabilization tends to focus on taxes and dismiss
the relevance of government expenditure except for unemployment compensation. Our …

In this paper, I estimate the ex ante or intentional cyclical stance of fiscal policy in OECD
countries. I use the fiscal plans reported at the time of budgeting, together with other …

Using real-time data from Europe's Stability and Convergence Programs, we explore how
fiscal plans and their implementation in the EU are determined. We find that (1) implemented …