Markov Switching Garch Models: Higher Order Moments, Kurtosis Measures, and Volatility Evaluation in Recessions and Pandemic

M Cavicchioli - Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
In this article, we derive neat matrix formulas in closed form for computing higher order
moments and kurtosis of univariate Markov switching GARCH models. Then we provide …

Asymmetry in unemployment rate forecast errors

JW Galbraith, S van Norden - International Journal of Forecasting, 2019 - Elsevier
Asymmetries in unemployment dynamics have been observed in the time series of a number
of countries, including the United States. This paper studies asymmetries in unemployment …

Gold returns: Do business cycle asymmetries matter? Evidence from an international country sample

N Apergis, S Eleftheriou - Economic Modelling, 2016 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the link between business cycle asymmetries and gold price
dynamics across an international country sample. The empirical effort employs oil, consumer …

Forecasting Markov switching vector autoregressions: Evidence from simulation and application

M Cavicchioli - Journal of Forecasting, 2025 - Wiley Online Library
We derive the optimal forecasts for multivariate autoregressive time series processes subject
to Markov switching in regime. Optimality means that the trace of the mean square forecast …

A Time Series Analysis of Corporate Profit Rates in Selected Developed Economies: Asymmetries, Non-linearity and Mean Reversion

ID Trofimov - Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2024 - Springer
This study examines the dynamic behaviour of corporate profits in selected developed
economies using the quarterly data. Firstly, the non-linear and asymmetric behaviour is …

Regime switching in yield structures and real estate investment

A Krystalogianni, S Tsolacos - Journal of Property Research, 2004 - Taylor & Francis
The present study examines the structure of yields between broad asset classes (real estate,
equities and government bonds) and the implications for portfolio allocation decisions and …

Investigating business cycle asymmetry for the G7 countries: Evidence from over a century of data

PK Narayan, S Popp - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2009 - Elsevier
In this paper we test for asymmetric behaviour of business cycles for the G7 countries, using
the entropy-based test for asymmetry suggested by Racine and Maasoumi [Racine, JS, & …

[PDF][PDF] The measurement and asymmetry tests of business cycle: Evidence from China

Y Liu, G Liao - Quant. Financ. Econ, 2017 - aimspress.com
In this paper, the dynamic factor model (DFM) is employed to measure China's business
cycle with macroeconomic indexes from January 2000 to September 2016, so as to …

Can capacity constraints explain asymmetries of the business cycle?

M Knüppel - Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2014 - cambridge.org
In this paper, we investigate the ability of a modified real business cycle (RBC) model to
reproduce asymmetries observed for macroeconomic variables over the business cycle. To …

Trend and cycle decomposition of Markov switching (co) integrated time series

M Cavicchioli - Statistical Methods & Applications, 2023 - Springer
In this paper we derive the Beveridge–Nelson (BN) decomposition and the state space
representation for various multivariate (co) integrated time series subject to Markov …