Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures
Structured protocols offer a transparent and systematic way to elicit and combine/aggregate,
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
probabilistic predictions from multiple experts. These judgements can be aggregated …
Facilitating sender-receiver agreement in communicated probabilities: Is it best to use words, numbers or both?
DR Mandel, D Irwin - Judgment and Decision Making, 2021 - cambridge.org
Organizations tasked with communicating expert judgments couched in uncertainty often
use numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes to standardize the meaning of …
use numerically bounded linguistic probability schemes to standardize the meaning of …
Predicting reliability through structured expert elicitation with the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for Trustworthy Science) process
As replications of individual studies are resource intensive, techniques for predicting the
replicability are required. We introduce the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for …
replicability are required. We introduce the repliCATS (Collaborative Assessments for …
Hypothesized drivers of the bias blind spot—cognitive sophistication, introspection bias, and conversational processes
Individuals often assess themselves as being less susceptible to common biases compared
to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this …
to others. This bias blind spot (BBS) is thought to represent a metacognitive error. In this …
Communicating uncertainty in national security intelligence: Expert and nonexpert interpretations of and preferences for verbal and numeric formats
D Irwin, DR Mandel - Risk Analysis, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Organizations in several domains including national security intelligence communicate
judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (eg, likely) instead of numeric …
judgments under uncertainty using verbal probabilities (eg, likely) instead of numeric …
The wisdom of the coherent: Improving correspondence with coherence-weighted aggregation.
Previous research shows that variation in coherence (ie, degrees of respect for axioms of
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …
The effect of calibration training on the calibration of intelligence analysts' judgments
Experts are expected to make well‐calibrated judgments within their field, yet a voluminous
literature demonstrates miscalibration in human judgment. Calibration training aimed at …
literature demonstrates miscalibration in human judgment. Calibration training aimed at …
Self-selected interval judgments compared to point judgments: A weight judgment experiment in the presence of the size-weight illusion
Measurements of human attitudes and perceptions have traditionally used numerical point
judgments. In the present study, we compared conventional point estimates of weight with …
judgments. In the present study, we compared conventional point estimates of weight with …
Eliciting Expectations
SM Hartzmark, AB Sussman - Available at SSRN 4780506, 2024 - papers.ssrn.com
We document that variation in the question format used to elicit belief distributions of
percentage changes, such as return expectations, can significantly influence those reported …
percentage changes, such as return expectations, can significantly influence those reported …
The wisdom of the coherent: Improving correspondence with coherence-weighted aggregation
I Intelligence - Decision, 2024 - search.proquest.com
Previous research shows that variation in coherence (ie, degrees of respect for axioms of
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …
probability calculus), when used as a basis for performance-weighted aggregation, can …