Decisions under risk are decisions under complexity

R Oprea - American Economic Review, 2024 - aeaweb.org
We provide evidence that classic lottery anomalies like probability weighting and loss
aversion are not special phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) …

Cognitive uncertainty

B Enke, T Graeber - The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2023 - academic.oup.com
This article documents the economic relevance of measuring cognitive uncertainty: people's
subjective uncertainty over their ex ante utility-maximizing decision. In a series of …

Psychology-based models of asset prices and trading volume

N Barberis - Handbook of behavioral economics: applications and …, 2018 - Elsevier
Behavioral finance tries to make sense of financial data using models that are based on
psychologically accurate assumptions about people's beliefs, preferences, and cognitive …

Prospect theory and stock market anomalies

N Barberis, LJ Jin, B Wang - The Journal of Finance, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
We present a new model of asset prices in which investors evaluate risk according to
prospect theory and examine its ability to explain 23 prominent stock market anomalies. The …

Reference-dependent preferences

T O'Donoghue, C Sprenger - Handbook of behavioral economics …, 2018 - Elsevier
In this chapter, we present theories and applications of reference-dependent preferences.
We provide some historical perspective, but also move quickly to the current research …

Measuring the completeness of economic models

D Fudenberg, J Kleinberg, A Liang… - Journal of Political …, 2022 - journals.uchicago.edu
Economic models are evaluated by testing the correctness of their predictions. We suggest
an additional measure,“completeness”: the fraction of the predictable variation in the data …

[PDF][PDF] Simplicity equivalents

R Oprea - Working paper, 2022 - econ.queensu.ca
We provide evidence that the signature empirical patterns of prospect theory are not special
phenomena of risk. They also arise (and often with equal strength) when subjects evaluate …

The complexity of economic decisions

X Gabaix, T Graeber - 2024 - nber.org
We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic
framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy …

Age differences in risk attitude are shaped by option complexity.

V Zilker, R Hertwig, T Pachur - Journal of Experimental Psychology …, 2020 - psycnet.apa.org
The canonical conclusion from research on age differences in risky choice is that older
adults are more risk averse than younger adults, at least in choices involving gains. Most of …

[HTML][HTML] On the empirical validity of cumulative prospect theory: A response to the Wakker commentaries

BD Bernheim, C Sprenger - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental …, 2023 - Elsevier
Abstract In Bernheim and Sprenger (2020) and Bernheim, Royer, and Sprenger (2022), we
devised and implemented a new test of rank-dependent probability weighting for Cumulative …