EGARCH models with fat tails, skewness and leverage

A Harvey, G Sucarrat - Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 2014 - Elsevier
An EGARCH model in which the conditional distribution is heavy-tailed and skewed is
proposed. The properties of the model, including unconditional moments, autocorrelations …

Conditional euro area sovereign default risk

A Lucas, B Schwaab, X Zhang - Journal of Business & Economic …, 2014 - Taylor & Francis
We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional
sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t …

Bank business models at zero interest rates

A Lucas, J Schaumburg, B Schwaab - Journal of Business & …, 2019 - Taylor & Francis
We propose a novel observation-driven finite mixture model for the study of banking data.
The model accommodates time-varying component means and covariance matrices, normal …

Stationarity and ergodicity of univariate generalized autoregressive score processes

F Blasques, SJ Koopman, A Lucas - 2014 - projecteuclid.org
We characterize the dynamic properties of generalized autoregressive score models by
identifying the regions of the parameter space that imply stationarity and ergodicity of the …

A generalized CAPM model with asymmetric power distributed errors with an application to portfolio construction

T Bao, C Diks, H Li - Economic Modelling, 2018 - Elsevier
We estimate the CAPM model on European stock market data, allowing for asymmetric and
fat-tailed return distributions using independent and identically asymmetric power distributed …

Modeling financial sector joint tail risk in the euro area

A Lucas, B Schwaab, X Zhang - Journal of Applied …, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
We develop a novel high‐dimensional non‐Gaussian modeling framework to infer
measures of conditional and joint default risk for numerous financial sector firms. The model …

[PDF][PDF] Score-driven models: Methods and applications

M Artemova, F Blasques, J van Brummelen… - … of Economics and …, 2022 - sjkoopman.net
The flexibility, generality and feasibility of score-driven models have contributed much to the
impact of score-driven models in both research and policy. Score-driven models provide a …

Bayesian analysis of multivariate stochastic volatility with skew return distribution

J Nakajima - Econometric Reviews, 2017 - Taylor & Francis
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting
Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with …

Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort

D Caballero, A Lucas, B Schwaab, X Zhang - Journal of Monetary …, 2020 - Elsevier
To what extent can a central bank influence its own balance sheet credit risks during a
financial crisis through unconventional monetary policy operations? To study this question …

Conditional probabilities and contagion measures for euro area sovereign default risk

X Zhang, B Schwaab, A Lucas - 2011 - econstor.eu
We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional
failure for Euro area sovereigns. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t copulawhich …