[HTML][HTML] Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future

R Weron - International journal of forecasting, 2014 - Elsevier
A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the
last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the …

[图书][B] Modeling and forecasting electricity loads and prices: A statistical approach

R Weron - 2006 - books.google.com
This book offers an in-depth and up-to-date review of different statistical tools that can be
used to analyze and forecast the dynamics of two crucial for every energy company …

Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients

NV Karakatsani, DW Bunn - International Journal of Forecasting, 2008 - Elsevier
This paper investigates the day-ahead forecasting performance of fundamental price models
for electricity spot prices, intended to capture:(i) the impacts of economic, technical, strategic …

Point and interval forecasting of spot electricity prices: Linear vs. non-linear time series models

A Misiorek, S Trueck, R Weron - Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & …, 2006 - degruyter.com
In this paper we assess the short-term forecasting power of different time series models in
the electricity spot market. In particular we calibrate AR/ARX (''X''stands for exogenous …

[HTML][HTML] Testing for integration and cointegration when time series are observed with noise

A Gianfreda, P Maranzano, L Parisio, M Pelagatti - Economic modelling, 2023 - Elsevier
When time series are observed with noise, the popular Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit
root test and Johansen's cointegration test are oversized: the ADF tends to conclude for …

Managing wind‐based electricity generation in the presence of storage and transmission capacity

Y Zhou, A Scheller‐Wolf… - Production and …, 2019 - journals.sagepub.com
We investigate the management of a merchant wind energy farm co‐located with a grid‐
level storage facility and connected to a market through a transmission line. We formulate …

Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation

NV Karakatsani, DW Bunn - Energy Economics, 2008 - Elsevier
This paper analyses the complex, non-linear effects of spot price drivers in wholesale
electricity markets: their intra-day dynamics and transient irregularities. The context is the UK …

Forecasting power prices using a hybrid fundamental-econometric model

V Gonzalez, J Contreras… - IEEE Transactions on …, 2011 - ieeexplore.ieee.org
We investigate the performance of two hybrid forecasting models to predict the next-day
base load electricity prices on the APX power exchange for Great Britain. Hybrid models …

Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources

L Grossi, F Nan - Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019 - Elsevier
In this paper a robust approach to modeling electricity spot prices is introduced. Differently
from what has been recently done in the literature on electricity price forecasting, where the …

[HTML][HTML] Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach

Y Lu, N Suthaharan - Energy Economics, 2023 - Elsevier
Sudden dramatic rises in electricity prices, known as electricity “price spikes”, are ubiquitous
in electricity spot markets worldwide. These price spikes often cluster. Energy retailers in …