This paper describes the empirical evidence on partisan politics in OECD panel studies. I
elaborate on the research designs, the measurement of government ideology and why the …

This paper combines incumbency advantage and political budget cycle theory. An
opportunistic politician is given two instruments: deficit‐financed transfers and propaganda …

We study the impact of the domestic stability pact on the accuracy of budget forecasts of
Italian municipalities. Identification of the causal effect exploits a quasi-natural experiment …

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to
elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear …

This paper provides a unique comparison between French and Portuguese local
governments with respect to the nature and determinants of budget forecast errors. It starts …

Tax data is a typical time series data, which is subject to the interaction and influence of
economic and political factors and has dynamic and highly nonlinear characteristics. The …

We document that Italian public administrations systematically overestimate capital
expenditures, and that the introduction of a cap on this spending item improves the accuracy …

While governments prefer to alter budgets to fit their ideological stances, the domestic and
international contexts can facilitate or constrain behavior. The Politics of Budgets …

We examine whether German state governments manipulated fiscal forecasts before
elections. Our data set includes three fiscal measures over the period 1980-2014. The …

The efficacy of official forecasts in the EU has been under the spotlight since the introduction
of the euro, with biases widely reported prior to the 2008–12 financial and sovereign bond …