Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic

JH Cochrane - European economic review, 2011 - Elsevier
I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in
and following the great recession of 2008–2009. I also examine policy alternatives to avoid …

Shotgun wedding: Fiscal and monetary policy

M Bassetto, TJ Sargent - Annual Review of Economics, 2020 - annualreviews.org
This review describes interactions between monetary and fiscal policies that affect
equilibrium price levels and interest rates by critically surveying theories about (a) optimal …

Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds

C Arellano, A Ramanarayanan - Journal of Political …, 2012 - journals.uchicago.edu
This paper studies the maturity composition and the term structure of interest rate spreads of
government debt in emerging markets. In the data, when interest rate spreads rise, debt …

Using stock returns to identify government spending shocks

JDM Fisher, R Peters - The Economic Journal, 2010 - academic.oup.com
This article explores a new approach to identifying government spending shocks which
avoids many of the shortcomings of existing approaches. The new approach is to identify …

Government debt and corporate leverage: International evidence

I Demirci, J Huang, C Sialm - Journal of financial economics, 2019 - Elsevier
We empirically investigate the impact of government debt on corporate financing decisions
in an international setting. We show a negative relation between government debt and …

Interest rate risk and other determinants of post-WWII US government debt/GDP dynamics

GJ Hall, TJ Sargent - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2011 - aeaweb.org
This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of
returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and …

The US public debt valuation puzzle

The market value of outstanding federal government debt in the US exceeds the expected
present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses by a multiple of US GDP …

Inflating away the public debt? An empirical assessment

J Hilscher, A Raviv, R Reis - The Review of Financial Studies, 2022 - academic.oup.com
This paper proposes a new method for measuring the impact of inflation on the real value of
public debt. The distribution of debt debasement is based on two inputs: the distribution of …

Government debt and the returns to innovation

MM Croce, TT Nguyen, S Raymond… - Journal of Financial …, 2019 - Elsevier
Elevated levels of government debt raise concerns about their effects on long-term growth
prospects. Using the cross-section of US stock returns, we show that (i) high-R&D firms are …

Fiscal deficits, bank credit risk, and loan-loss provisions

FBG Silva - Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2021 - cambridge.org
Fiscal deficits represent an important variable for banks' aggregate credit risk, revealing
governments' ability to curb banks' losses in bad states, either with direct cash infusions or …