Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate sensitivity

KC Armour, C Proistosescu, Y Dong… - Proceedings of the …, 2024 - National Acad Sciences
The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong
constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) …

[HTML][HTML] The Zero Emissions Commitment and climate stabilization

S Palazzo Corner, M Siegert, P Ceppi… - Frontiers in …, 2023 - frontiersin.org
How do we halt global warming? Reaching net zero carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions is
understood to be a key milestone on the path to a safer planet. But how confident are we that …

Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern

M Watanabe, SM Kang, M Collins, YT Hwang… - Nature, 2024 - nature.com
Abstract Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific
modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and …

Winds and meltwater together lead to Southern Ocean surface cooling and sea ice expansion

LA Roach, KD Mankoff, A Romanou… - Geophysical …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Southern Ocean surface cooling and Antarctic sea ice expansion from 1979 through 2015
have been linked both to changing atmospheric circulation and melting of Antarctica's …

The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) Initiative: scientific objectives and experimental design

NC Swart, T Martin, R Beadling, JJ Chen… - Geoscientific Model …, 2023 - gmd.copernicus.org
As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding
Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean …

Recent multi‐decadal southern ocean surface cooling unlikely caused by southern annular mode trends

Y Dong, LM Polvani, DB Bonan - Geophysical Research Letters, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Over recent decades, the Southern Ocean (SO) has experienced multi‐decadal surface
cooling despite global warming. Earlier studies have proposed that recent SO cooling has …

Tropical eastern Pacific cooling trend reinforced by human activity

ES Chung, SJ Kim, SK Lee, KJ Ha, SW Yeh… - npj Climate and …, 2024 - nature.com
It remains unresolved whether the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) trend pattern
during the satellite era, featuring a distinct warming in the northwest/southwest Pacific but …

Surface temperature pattern scenarios suggest higher warming rates than current projections

MJ Alessi, MAA Rugenstein - Geophysical Research Letters, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) struggle to reproduce recently
observed sea surface temperature (SST) trend patterns. Here, we quantify the relevance of …

Background pycnocline depth constrains future ocean heat uptake efficiency

E Newsom, L Zanna, J Gregory - Geophysical Research Letters, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Ocean Heat Uptake Efficiency (OHUE) quantifies the ocean's ability to mitigate
surface warming through deep heat sequestration. Despite its importance, the main controls …

Two competing drivers of the recent Walker circulation trend

M Watanabe, T Iwakiri, Y Dong… - Geophysical Research …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Abstract The Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) weakens under global warming in climate
change projections, supported by a global hydrological constraint. However, the PWC has …