The macroeconomy is a sophisticated dynamic system involving significant uncertainties
that complicate modelling. In response, decision makers consider multiple models that …

This paper demonstrates that inflation expectations have acted as significant amplifiers of
recent global demand and supply shocks, thereby playing a crucial role in maintaining …

Decision-guided perspectives on model uncertainty expand traditional statistical thinking
about managing, comparing, and combining inferences from sets of models. In this …

Despite the importance of predictive judgments, individual human forecasts are frequently
less accurate than those of even simple prediction algorithms. At the same time, not all …

Macro variables frequently display time-varying distributions, driven by the dynamic and
evolving characteristics of economic, social, and environmental factors that consistently …

Consensus forecasts by professionals are highly accurate, yet hide large heterogeneity. We
develop a framework to extract the judgement component from survey forecasts and analyse …

We examine the impact of energy transition policies on the US markets of three critical
minerals used for batteries, namely cobalt, lithium and nickel. To achieve this, we estimate …

After decades of a stable environment with low inflation in most advanced economies, global
inflation rates surged unexpectedly during the pandemic and have remained elevated since …

This paper examines the relationship between non-performing loans and economic
conditions. This relationship is used to forecast the possible path of non-performing loans …