Political credit cycles

A Kern, P Amri - Economics & Politics, 2021 - Wiley Online Library
This paper tests the existence of political credit cycles, the positive comovement between
credit and elections. While several single‐country studies point to the existence of this …

Does economic policy uncertainty explain exchange rate movements in the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS): a panel ARDL approach

M Korley, E Giouvris - International Journal of Financial Studies, 2023 - mdpi.com
Research proposes that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) leads to exchange rate
fluctuations. Given that African countries experience higher levels of uncertainty in …

Moral hazard and financial crises: Evidence from American troop deployments

M Aklin, A Kern - International Studies Quarterly, 2019 - academic.oup.com
Do international lenders of last resort create financial instability by generating moral hazard?
The evidence is thin and plagued with measurement error. We use the number of American …

Sovereign debt and currency crises prediction models using machine learning techniques

D Alaminos, JI Peláez, MB Salas… - Symmetry, 2021 - mdpi.com
Sovereign debt and currencies play an increasingly influential role in the development of
any country, given the need to obtain financing and establish international relations. A …

The democratic (dis) advantage: The conditional impact of democracy on credit risk and sovereign default

D Hansen - Economics & Politics, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
Many have argued that democracies are able to make credible commitments to repay their
debts and consequently enjoy higher sovereign credit ratings. In contrast to this expectation …

Competition for visibility: When do (FX) signal providers employ lotteries?

J Schneider, A Oehler - International Review of Financial Analysis, 2021 - Elsevier
We argue that certain currency pairs, similar to stocks, are perceived and employed as
gambling opportunities. We define currency pairs with extreme positive daily returns as …

Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma

A Steiner, S Steinkamp, F Westermann - European Journal of Political …, 2019 - Elsevier
Abstract In the winter 2011/12, a wave of internal capital flight prompted the ECB to abandon
its exit strategy and announce an unprecedented monetary expansion. We analyze this …

Policy regimes and economic accountability in Latin America

RE Carlin, T Hellwig - Comparative Political Studies, 2019 - journals.sagepub.com
The shifts from state-led development to neoliberalism in Latin America have prompted
debates on the quality of democracy. Although most discussions focus on responsiveness …

Empowering women in central banking

A Kern, B Reinsberg, D Romelli - Journal of European Public Policy, 2024 - Taylor & Francis
When are women appointed to the board of central banks? While progressive societal
gender norms may facilitate women's ascension to leadership positions, recent research …

Autocracy and variations in economic development outcomes

CH Knutsen - Research handbook on democracy and development, 2021 - elgaronline.com
In this chapter, I discuss and analyze the vast variation in economic growth outcomes that
exist among autocratic regimes, as well as plausible explanations of this variation pertaining …