Modelling team performance in soccer using tactical features derived from position tracking data

FR Goes, M Kempe, J Van Norel… - IMA Journal of …, 2021 - academic.oup.com
Decision-makers in soccer routinely assess the tactical behaviour of a team and its
opponents both during and after the game to optimize performance. Currently, this …

Optimal sports betting strategies in practice: an experimental review

U Matej, Š Gustav, H Ondřej… - IMA Journal of …, 2021 - academic.oup.com
We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment
based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. We define the problem setting, the …

Predicting football match outcomes with explainable machine learning and the kelly index

Y Ren, T Susnjak - arXiv preprint arXiv:2211.15734, 2022 - arxiv.org
In this work, a machine learning approach is developed for predicting the outcomes of
football matches. The novelty of this research lies in the utilisation of the Kelly Index to first …

Discovering associations between players' performance indicators and matches' results in the European Soccer Leagues

M Carpita, S Golia - Journal of Applied Statistics, 2021 - Taylor & Francis
The application of data mining techniques and statistical analysis to the sports field has
received increasing attention in the last decade. One of the most famous sports in the world …

Forecasting football results and exploiting betting markets: The case of “both teams to score”

IB da Costa, LB Marinho, CES Pires - International Journal of Forecasting, 2022 - Elsevier
The continuous growth of available football data presents unprecedented research
opportunities for a better understanding of football dynamics. While many research works …

Efficient posterior sampling for Bayesian Poisson regression

L D'Angelo, A Canale - Journal of Computational and Graphical …, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
Poisson log-linear models are ubiquitous in many applications, and one of the most popular
approaches for parametric count regression. In the Bayesian context, however, there are no …

Machine-learning-based statistical arbitrage football betting

J Knoll, J Stübinger - KI-Künstliche Intelligenz, 2020 - Springer
Across countries and continents, football (soccer) has drawn increasingly more attention
over the last decades and developed into a huge commercial complex. Consequently, the …

Penerapan Regresi Double Poisson untuk Memprediksi Pertandingan dan Klasemen Liga 1 Indonesia

DAF Hilman - Jurnal Riset Statistika, 2023 - journals.unisba.ac.id
Football has become the most popular physical sport in the world. Football has evolved into
a sport that involves scientists to improve the quality of competition. Predicting football …

Comparing goal-based and result-based approaches in modelling football outcomes

L Egidi, N Torelli - Social Indicators Research, 2021 - Springer
Two main approaches are considered when building statistical models for football
outcomes:(1) the goal-based approach, where the number of goals scored by two competing …

Modelling dependence in football match outcomes: Traditional assumptions and an alternative proposal

M Petretta, L Schiavon… - Statistical Modelling, 2024 - journals.sagepub.com
The approaches routinely used to model the outcomes of football matches are characterized
by strong assumptions about the dependence between the number of goals scored by the …