[HTML][HTML] Challenges in forecasting antimicrobial resistance
Antimicrobial resistance is a major threat to human health. Since the 2000s, computational
tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to …
tools for predicting infectious diseases have been greatly advanced; however, efforts to …
An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation
Infectious disease modelling can serve as a powerful tool for situational awareness and
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …
decision support for policy makers. However, COVID-19 modelling efforts faced many …
The United States COVID-19 forecast hub dataset
Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have
produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage …
produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage …
Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well …
Unraveling complex causal processes that affect sustainability requires more integration between empirical and modeling approaches
Scientists seek to understand the causal processes that generate sustainability problems
and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered …
and determine effective solutions. Yet, causal inquiry in nature–society systems is hampered …
[HTML][HTML] The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Abstract Between December 2020 and April 2023, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
(SMH) generated operational multi-month projections of COVID-19 burden in the US to …
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are closely related tasks, with the former
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
Context-dependent representation of within-and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology
Probabilistic predictions support public health planning and decision making, especially in
infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more …
infectious disease emergencies. Aggregating outputs from multiple models yields more …
Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study
While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world,
communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of …
communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of …
A structured overview of insights and opportunities for enhancing supply chain resilience
Widespread product shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic and other emergencies have
prompted several large studies of how to make supply chains more resilient. In this article …
prompted several large studies of how to make supply chains more resilient. In this article …