For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been
considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of …

After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their
communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their …

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming
expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual …

We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between
cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of inflation expectations, and the consumption plans of …

Inflation expectations are central to economics because they affect the effectiveness of fiscal
and monetary policy, as well as realized inflation. We survey the recent literature with a …

Binding lower bounds on interest rates and large government deficits limit the scope of fiscal
and monetary policies to stimulate households' spending through financial intermediaries …

We compare causal effects of forward guidance about future interest rates on households'
expectations of inflation and nominal mortgage rates to the effects of communication about …

This paper documents that a large-scale government subsidy aimed at encouraging people
to eat out in restaurants in the wake of the first 2020 COVID-19 wave in the United Kingdom …

Using a large multi-country survey and new pseudo panel dataset, we investigate the
spending response of consumers to their beliefs about future inflation. The analysis exploits …

How do global political shocks influence individuals' expectations about economic
outcomes? We run a unique survey on inflation expectations among 145 tenured economics …