This paper examines the drivers of fluctuations in global inflation, defined as a common
factor across monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) inflation in G7 countries, over the …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation—their perceived causes,
consequences, trade-offs—and the policies supported to mitigate its effects. We design a …

We analyse cycles in policy interest rates in 24 advanced economies over 1970-2024,
combining a new application of business cycle methodology with rich timeseries …

We study the relationship between financial frictions and trade dynamics by exploiting the
reallocation of global supply chains induced by the 2018--2019 trade tensions between the …

This paper studies inflation in small open economies with production networks. I show that
the production network alters the elasticity of the consumer price index (CPI) to changes in …

This paper investigates the fiscal impact of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) on the post-
pandemic surge in US inflation. In the existing literature, the dominant strategy for identifying …

How do firms respond to macroeconomic shocks? To study this question, we construct novel
daily time series that measure firms' plans and expectations based on surveys from …

For most of the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic, undershooting rather than
overshooting had been the main inflation problem of the European Central Bank (ECB) …

Do rising government deficits increase inflation? This classic question dates back to Sargent
and Wallace (1981) and earlier. However the question has received renewed attention in …

Will inflation quickly return to the FOMC's target of 2 percent? I explore this question through
the lens of the Verbrugge and Zaman (2023) model—the VZ model—a structural model …