This paper examines several ways to extract timely economic signals from newspaper text
and shows that such information can materially improve forecasts of macroeconomic …

Financial shocks generate a protracted and quantitatively important effect on real economic
activity and financial markets only if the shocks are both negative and large. Otherwise, their …

We use logit and Markov switching models to assess, in (pseudo-) real-time, the ability of 27
indicators to predict systemic financial crises in the European Union. Before the global …

I construct a new composite measure of systemic financial market stress for Canada.
Compared with existing measures, it better captures the 1990 housing market correction and …

Central bank independence has raised questions of accountability ever since its global
diffusion in the 1990s, and especially since the financial crisis. Yet, whilst the literature on …

This paper investigates nonlinear international financial stress spillovers on a small open
economy. The literature provides evidence that financial stress may amplify the effects of …

This study improves on the methodology for calculating the financial stress index (FSI) for
Ukraine by introducing a time-varying correlation into the aggregation of five subindices …

As non‐majoritarian institutions are deliberately insulated from electoral pressure and
ministerial hierarchy, they face an accountability deficit. This deficit can be reduced by …

This article examines the connection between economic uncertainty and financial market
conditions in South Africa, documenting that the macroeconomic implications of an …

This article develops a new index to monitor financial stability in South Africa over the period
1995–2017. Rather than selecting indicators based on deemed relevance, the novelty of our …