How reliable are climate models?

J Raäisaänen - Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 2007 - Taylor & Francis
How much can we trust model-based projections of future anthropogenic climate change?
This review attempts to give an overview of this important but difficult topic by using three …

Water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the climate system

R Colman, BJ Soden - Reviews of Modern Physics, 2021 - APS
Water vapor is a greenhouse gas that dominates Earth's terrestrial radiation absorption. As
the planetary temperature warms, forced by increasing CO 2 and other greenhouse gases …

Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models

MD Zelinka, TA Myers, DT McCoy… - Geophysical …, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
Equilibrium climate sensitivity, the global surface temperature response to CO doubling, has
been persistently uncertain. Recent consensus places it likely within 1.5–4.5 K. Global …

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

TA Myers, RC Scott, MD Zelinka, SA Klein… - Nature Climate …, 2021 - nature.com
Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate
change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming …

Subtropical clouds key to Southern Ocean teleconnections to the tropical Pacific

H Kim, SM Kang, JE Kay… - Proceedings of the …, 2022 - National Acad Sciences
Excessive precipitation over the southeastern tropical Pacific is a major common bias that
persists through generations of global climate models. While recent studies suggest an …

Observational evidence that cloud feedback amplifies global warming

P Ceppi, P Nowack - … of the National Academy of Sciences, 2021 - National Acad Sciences
Global warming drives changes in Earth's cloud cover, which, in turn, may amplify or
dampen climate change. This “cloud feedback” is the single most important cause of …

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean climate models

T Andrews, JM Gregory, MJ Webb… - Geophysical research …, 2012 - Wiley Online Library
We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere‐ocean
general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt …

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

C Zhou, MD Zelinka, SA Klein - Nature Geoscience, 2016 - nature.com
Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global
warming,,. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming …

On the interpretation of inter-model spread in CMIP5 climate sensitivity estimates

J Vial, JL Dufresne, S Bony - Climate Dynamics, 2013 - Springer
This study diagnoses the climate sensitivity, radiative forcing and climate feedback estimates
from eleven general circulation models participating in the Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model …

[PDF][PDF] Climate models and their evaluation

DA Randall, RA Wood, S Bony, R Colman… - Climate change 2007 …, 2007 - pure.mpg.de
This chapter assesses the capacity of the global climate models used elsewhere in this
report for projecting future climate change. Confidence in model estimates of future climate …