Statistical postprocessing techniques are nowadays key components of the forecasting
suites in many national meteorological services (NMS), with, for most of them, the objective …

A probabilistic forecast takes the form of a predictive probability distribution over future
quantities or events of interest. Probabilistic forecasting aims to maximize the sharpness of …

Probabilistic solar forecasts may take the form of predictive probability distributions,
ensembles, quantiles, or interval forecasts. State-of-the-art approaches build on input from …

Ensemble forecasting applied to the field of hydrology is currently an established area of
research embracing a broad spectrum of operational situations. This work catalogs the …

Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is notoriously difficult, but is also ever more crucial for
society as climate change increases the frequency of such extremes. Global numerical …

Data assimilation (DA) holds considerable potential for improving hydrologic predictions as
demonstrated in numerous research studies. However, advances in hydrologic DA research …

Computer simulation models have been widely used to generate hydrometeorological
forecasts. As the raw forecasts contain uncertainties arising from various sources, including …

集合数值模式预报已在定量降水预报业务中广泛应用, 以获得预报不确定性,
最可能预报结果以及极端天气预警. 由于集合系统的数值模式不完善, 且不能提供所有的不确定 …

对21 世纪以来定量降水预报技术流程中的数值模式预报, 统计后处理, 检验评估和预报员作用4
个方面的研究工作进行了归纳, 主要进展包括: 业务全球模式对于降水的预报能力持续提升 …

Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Simulation Models Using Ensemble Copula Coupling
Page 1 Statistical Science 2013, Vol. 28, No. 4, 616–640 DOI: 10.1214/13-STS443 © Institute of …