Volatility is (mostly) path-dependent

J Guyon, J Lekeufack - Quantitative Finance, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
We learn from data that volatility is mostly path-dependent: up to 90% of the variance of the
implied volatility of equity indexes is explained endogenously by past index returns, and up …

Joint SPX & VIX calibration with Gaussian polynomial volatility models: Deep pricing with quantization hints

E Abi Jaber, C Illand, S Li - Mathematical Finance, 2024 - Wiley Online Library
We consider the joint SPX & VIX calibration within a general class of Gaussian polynomial
volatility models in which the volatility of the SPX is assumed to be a polynomial function of a …

Signature-based models: theory and calibration

C Cuchiero, G Gazzani, S Svaluto-Ferro - SIAM journal on financial …, 2023 - SIAM
We consider asset price models whose dynamics are described by linear functions of the
(time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which can range from a (market …

Empirical analysis of rough and classical stochastic volatility models to the SPX and VIX markets

SE Rømer - Quantitative Finance, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
We conduct an empirical analysis of rough and classical stochastic volatility models to the
SPX and VIX options markets. Our analysis focusses primarily on calibration quality and is …

Joint calibration to SPX and VIX options with signature-based models

C Cuchiero, G Gazzani, J Möller… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2023 - arxiv.org
We consider a stochastic volatility model where the dynamics of the volatility are described
by linear functions of the (time extended) signature of a primary underlying process, which is …

The quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility model that jointly calibrates SPX & VIX smiles

EA Jaber, C Illand - arXiv preprint arXiv:2212.10917, 2022 - arxiv.org
The quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility model is a stochastic volatility model where the
volatility process is a polynomial function of degree five of a single Ornstein-Uhlenbeck …

Dispersion-constrained martingale Schrödinger problems and the exact joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration puzzle

J Guyon - Finance and Stochastics, 2024 - Springer
We solve for the first time a longstanding puzzle of quantitative finance that has often been
described as the holy grail of volatility modelling: build a model that jointly and exactly …

Dispersion-constrained martingale schrödinger bridges: Joint entropic calibration of stochastic volatility models to s&p 500 and vix smiles

J Guyon - Available at SSRN 4165057, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
We extend the discrete-time construction of [Guyon, J.: The Joint S&P 500/VIX Smile
Calibration Puzzle Solved, Risk, April 2020] and explain how to build a continuous-time …

Neural joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration

J Guyon, S Mustapha - Available at SSRN 4309576, 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
We calibrate neural stochastic differential equations jointly to S&P 500 smiles, VIX futures,
and VIX smiles. Drifts and volatilities are modeled as neural networks. Minimizing a suitable …

Calibration of local‐stochastic volatility models by optimal transport

I Guo, G Loeper, S Wang - Mathematical Finance, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper, we study a semi‐martingale optimal transport problem and its application to
the calibration of local‐stochastic volatility (LSV) models. Rather than considering the …