Economic nationalism is on the rise, but at what cost? We study this question using the
unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum vote as a natural macroeconomic experiment …

This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the
macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC …

Current economic theory typically assumes that all the macroeconomic variables belonging
to a given economy are driven by a small number of structural shocks. As recently argued …

We show that the correct experiment to evaluate the effects of a fiscal adjustment is the
simulation of a multi-year fiscal plan rather than of individual fiscal shocks. Simulation of …

This article reviews the literature on the econometric relationship between DSGE and VAR
models from the point of view of estimation and model validation. The mapping between …

The last twenty years have witnessed tremendous advances in the mathematical, statistical,
and computational tools available to applied macroeconomists. This rapidly evolving field …

In recent years a growing interest in the structural V AR approach (SV AR) has followed the
path-breaking works by Blanchard and Watson (1986), Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986) …

There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent
driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of …

News—or foresight—about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations
equilibria with non‐fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to …

The run‐up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity
markets and increased price co‐movement among different commodities. We assess …