Social science researchers increasingly recruit participants through Amazon's Mechanical
Turk (MTurk) platform. Yet, the physical isolation of MTurk participants, and perceived lack of …

The public expects science to reduce or eliminate uncertainty, yet scientific forecasts are
probabilistic (at best) and it is simply not possible to make predictions with certainty. Whilst …

Accurate time estimations are vital for meeting deadlines and reducing work-related stress,
yet individuals frequently succumb to a wide-spread cognitive bias, the planning fallacy …

Calls to communicate uncertainty using mixed, verbal‐numerical formats ('unlikely [0–33%]')
have stemmed from research comparing mixed with solely verbal communications …

Verbal probabilities have directional communicative functions, and most can be categorized
as positive (eg,“it is likely”) or negative (eg,“it is doubtful”). We examined the communicative …

Climate projections and other predictions are often described as outcomes that can happen,
indicating possibilities that are imaginable, but uncertain. Whereas the meanings of other …

Making time estimates, such as how long a given task might take, frequently leads to
inaccurate predictions because of an optimistic bias. Previous attempts to alleviate this bias …

Past work showed a tendency to associate verbal probabilities (eg, possible, unlikely) with
extreme quantitative outcomes, and to over-estimate the outcomes' probability of …

The purpose of this study was to understand the role played by several individual and
contextual variables in accounting for the subjects' performance in probabilistic reasoning …

In uncertain situations, the way people recommend optimism might vary. While previous
studies suggest a general bias for optimism in prescriptions, we attempt to extract nuance by …