Using data from seven large-scale randomized experiments, I test whether crowds of
academic experts can forecast the relative effectiveness of policy interventions. Eight …

Randomized controlled trials (RCT) are the gold standard in causal inference and are often
used by decision-makers in public and private sectors. However, RCTs are often expensive …

Green transitions require ambitious policy. This poses a political economy challenge. We
study how social norms and economic reasoning jointly shape public views towards carbon …

This dissertation studies the effects and elicitation of beliefs. In the first chapter we estimate
the effects of macroeconomic expectations on consumer decisions. We examine this …

Forecasts of research results can aid evaluation of their novelty and credibility by indicating
whether the results should be regarded as surprising, and by helping to mitigate publication …