Selective-Memory Equilibrium

D Fudenberg, G Lanzani… - Journal of Political …, 2024 - journals.uchicago.edu
We study agents who are more likely to remember some experiences than others but update
beliefs as if the experiences they remember are the only ones that occurred. To understand …

Evolutionarily stable (mis) specifications: Theory and applications

K He, J Libgober - arXiv preprint arXiv:2012.15007, 2020 - arxiv.org
Toward explaining the persistence of biased inferences, we propose a framework to
evaluate competing (mis) specifications in strategic settings. Agents with heterogeneous …

Mislearning from censored data: The gambler's fallacy and other correlational mistakes in optimal‐stopping problems

K He - Theoretical Economics, 2022 - Wiley Online Library
I study endogenous learning dynamics for people who misperceive intertemporal
correlations in random sequences. Biased agents face an optimal‐stopping problem. They …

The impact of fake reviews on demand and welfare

J Akesson, RW Hahn, RD Metcalfe, M Monti-Nussbaum - 2023 - nber.org
Although fake online customer reviews have become prevalent on platforms such as
Amazon, Google, and Facebook, little is known about how these reviews influence …

Decision theory and stochastic growth

A Robson, L Samuelson, J Steiner - American Economic Review …, 2023 - aeaweb.org
This paper examines connections between stochastic growth and decision problems. We
use tools from the theory of large deviations to show that wishful thinking decision problems …

[PDF][PDF] Robust Model Misspecification and Paradigm Shifts

C Ba - 2022 - papers.ssrn.com
This paper studies the forms of model misspecification that are more likely to persist when
an agent compares her subjective model with competing models. The agent learns about an …

Robust Misspecified Models and Paradigm Shifts

C Ba - arXiv preprint arXiv:2106.12727, 2021 - arxiv.org
Individuals use models to guide decisions, but many models are wrong. This paper studies
which misspecified models are likely to persist when individuals also entertain alternative …

Risk perception: measurement and aggregation

N Netzer, A Robson, J Steiner… - Journal of the European …, 2024 - academic.oup.com
In a model inspired by neuroscience, we study choice between lotteries as a process of
encoding and decoding noisy perceptual signals. The implications of this process for …

[PDF][PDF] Asymptotic learning with ambiguous information

P Reshidi, J Thereze, M Zhang - 2022 - joao-thereze.github.io
We study asymptotic learning when the decision-maker is ambiguous about the precision of
her information sources. She aims to estimate a state and evaluates outcomes according to …

[图书][B] The Behavioral Foundations of Model Misspecification: A Decomposition

JA Bohren, DN Hauser - 2023 - aeaweb.org
A growing literature in economics seeks to model how agents process information and
update beliefs. In this paper, we link two common approaches:(i) defining an updating rule …