Regime-switching models can match the tendency of financial markets to often change their
behavior abruptly and the phenomenon that the new behavior of financial variables often …

Many economic time series exhibit dramatic breaks associated with events such as
economic recessions, financial panics, and currency crises. Such changes in regime may …

Increases in government spending trigger substitution effects—both inter-and intra-temporal—
and a wealth effect. The ultimate impacts on the economy hinge on current and expected …

Inflation targeting is a monetary-policy strategy characterized by an announced numerical
inflation target, an implementation of monetary policy that gives a major role to an inflation …

We estimate a model for the US economy with monetary/fiscal policy mix changes. Monetary
policy accommodated fiscal policy through the'60s–'70s leading to high inflation. Monetary …

Macroeconomic Theory is the most up-to-date graduate-level macroeconomics textbook
available today. This revised second edition emphasizes the general equilibrium character …

We show that policy uncertainty about how the rising public debt will be stabilized accounts
for the lack of deflation in the US economy at the zero lower bound. We first estimate a …

Low and stable inflation requires an appropriate fiscal framework aimed at stabilizing
government debt. Historically, trend inflation is critically influenced by actual or perceived …

The evolution of the US economy over the past 55 years is examined through the lens of a
micro-founded model that allows for changes in the behaviour of the Federal Reserve and in …

Abstract The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic
Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate …