A python framework for environmental model uncertainty analysis

JT White, MN Fienen, JE Doherty - Environmental Modelling & Software, 2016 - Elsevier
We have developed pyEMU, a python framework for Environmental Modeling Uncertainty
analyses, open-source tool that is non-intrusive, easy-to-use, computationally efficient, and …

Decision support modeling: Data assimilation, uncertainty quantification, and strategic abstraction

J Doherty, C Moore - Groundwater, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
We present a framework for design and deployment of decision support modeling based on
metrics which have their roots in the scientific method. Application of these metrics to …

Uncertainty assessment and implications for data acquisition in support of integrated hydrologic models

P Brunner, J Doherty… - Water Resources Research, 2012 - Wiley Online Library
The data set used for calibration of regional numerical models which simulate groundwater
flow and vadose zone processes is often dominated by head observations. It is to be …

Case studies of predictive uncertainty quantification for geothermal models

J Omagbon, J Doherty, A Yeh, R Colina, J O'Sullivan… - Geothermics, 2021 - Elsevier
We present case studies on two methods for quantifying uncertainty in predictions for highly
parameterised geothermal models. One method is fully linear, while the other is nonlinear as …

[HTML][HTML] Data space inversion for efficient uncertainty quantification using an integrated surface and sub-surface hydrologic model

H Delottier, J Doherty, P Brunner - Geoscientific Model …, 2023 - gmd.copernicus.org
It is incumbent on decision-support hydrological modelling to make predictions of uncertain
quantities in a decision-support context. In implementing decision-support modelling, data …

Pathline density distributions in a null‐space Monte Carlo approach to assess groundwater pathways

C Moeck, J Molson, M Schirmer - Groundwater, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
A null‐space Monte‐Carlo (NSMC) approach was applied to account for uncertainty in the
calibration of the hydraulic conductivity (K) field for a three‐dimensional groundwater flow …

Revisiting “an exercise in groundwater model calibration and prediction” after 30 years: Insights and new directions

RJ Hunt, MN Fienen, JT White - Groundwater, 2020 - Wiley Online Library
In 1988, an important publication moved model calibration and forecasting beyond case
studies and theoretical analysis. It reported on a somewhat idyllic graduate student …

Emulator-enabled approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and uncertainty analysis for computationally expensive groundwater models

T Cui, L Peeters, D Pagendam, T Pickett, H Jin… - Journal of …, 2018 - Elsevier
Bayesian inference provides a mathematically elegant and robust approach to constrain
numerical model predictions with system knowledge and observations. Technical …

Why should practitioners be concerned about predictive uncertainty of groundwater management models?

H Delottier, A Pryet, A Dupuy - Water Resources Management, 2017 - Springer
Numerical models are now commonly used to define guidelines for the sustainable
management of groundwater resources. Despite significant advances in inverse modeling …

Estimability of recharge through groundwater model calibration: Insights from a field-scale steady-state example

MJ Knowling, AD Werner - Journal of Hydrology, 2016 - Elsevier
The ability of groundwater models to inform recharge through calibration is hampered by the
correlation between recharge and aquifer parameters such as hydraulic conductivity (K) …