[HTML][HTML] Estimating the time-varying reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 using national and subnational case counts

S Abbott, J Hellewell, RN Thompson… - Wellcome Open …, 2020 - wellcomeopenresearch.org
Background: Interventions are now in place worldwide to reduce transmission of the novel
coronavirus. Assessing temporal variations in transmission in different countries is essential …

Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies

RN Thompson, TD Hollingsworth… - … of the Royal …, 2020 - royalsocietypublishing.org
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced
worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to …

Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014

H Nishiura, G Chowell - Eurosurveillance, 2014 - eurosurveillance.org
The effective reproduction number, Rt, of Ebola virus disease was estimated using country-
specific data reported from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to the World Health …

Bayesian nowcasting during the STEC O104: H4 outbreak in Germany, 2011

M Höhle, M an der Heiden - Biometrics, 2014 - Wiley Online Library
A Bayesian approach to the prediction of occurred‐but‐not‐yet‐reported events is
developed for application in real‐time public health surveillance. The motivation was the …

[HTML][HTML] Nowcasting the number of new symptomatic cases during infectious disease outbreaks using constrained P-spline smoothing

J van de Kassteele, PHC Eilers, J Wallinga - Epidemiology, 2019 - journals.lww.com
During an infectious disease outbreak, timely information on the number of new symptomatic
cases is crucial. However, the reporting of new cases is usually subject to delay due to the …

estimateR: an R package to estimate and monitor the effective reproductive number

J Scire, JS Huisman, A Grosu, DC Angst, A Lison, J Li… - BMC …, 2023 - Springer
Background Accurate estimation of the effective reproductive number (R e) of epidemic
outbreaks is of central relevance to public health policy and decision making. We present …

[HTML][HTML] Inferring the 1985–2014 impact of mobile phone use on selected brain cancer subtypes using Bayesian structural time series and synthetic controls

F de Vocht - Environment international, 2016 - Elsevier
Background Mobile phone use has been increasing rapidly in the past decades and, in
parallel, so has the annual incidence of certain types of brain cancers. However, it remains …

Spatiotemporal analysis of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa

JA Backer, J Wallinga - PLoS computational biology, 2016 - journals.plos.org
In 2014–2016, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia in West Africa experienced the largest and
longest Ebola epidemic since the discovery of the virus in 1976. During the epidemic …

Bayesian outbreak detection in the presence of reporting delays

M Salmon, D Schumacher, K Stark… - Biometrical Journal, 2015 - Wiley Online Library
One use of infectious disease surveillance systems is the statistical aberration detection
performed on time series of counts resulting from the aggregation of individual case reports …

Collaborative nowcasting of COVID-19 hospitalization incidences in Germany

D Wolffram, S Abbott, M An der Heiden… - PLOS Computational …, 2023 - journals.plos.org
Real-time surveillance is a crucial element in the response to infectious disease outbreaks.
However, the interpretation of incidence data is often hampered by delays occurring at …