Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers

S Willcock, GS Cooper, J Addy, JA Dearing - Nature Sustainability, 2023 - nature.com
A major concern for the world's ecosystems is the possibility of collapse, where landscapes
and the societies they support change abruptly. Accelerating stress levels, increasing …

Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems

SV George, S Kachhara, G Ambika - Physica Scripta, 2023 - iopscience.iop.org
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to
detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the …

Early warning signals from the periphery: A model suggestion for the study of critical transitions

M Füllsack, D Reisinger, M Kapeller… - Journal of Computational …, 2022 - Springer
Studies on the possibility of predicting critical transitions with statistical methods known as
early warning signals (EWS) are often conducted on data generated with equation-based …

Predicting critical transitions in assortative spin-shifting networks

M Füllsack, D Reisinger, R Adam, M Kapeller, G Jäger - PloS one, 2023 - journals.plos.org
Methods to forecast critical transitions, ie abrupt changes in systems' equilibrium states have
relevance in scientific fields such as ecology, seismology, finance and medicine among …

LSTM-certainty as early warning signal for critical transitions

M Füllsack - Systems Science & Control Engineering, 2022 - Taylor & Francis
We trained a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-neural network on time series generated with
an agent-based model that was designed to differentiate the drivers of its dynamics into …

Transition prediction in the Ising-model

M Füllsack, D Reisinger - Plos one, 2021 - journals.plos.org
Dynamical systems can be subject to critical transitions where a system's state abruptly shifts
from one stable equilibrium to another. To a certain extent such transitions can be predicted …

[PDF][PDF] Early warning signals for critical transitions in complex systems

F Remo, G Fuhrmann, T Jäger, H Wang, JCJ Ray - 2022 - research.rug.nl
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to
detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the …

[PDF][PDF] Multiple drivers and extreme events collapse social-ecological systems sooner

S Willcock, G Cooper, J Addy, J Dearing - 2021 - scholar.archive.org
The world's ecosystems are undergoing unprecedented changes due to the impact of
climate change 17 and local human activities. A major concern is the possibility of tipping …