Noise in behavior is often viewed as a nuisance: while the mind aims to take the best
possible action, it is let down by unreliability in the sensory and response systems. How …

Bayesian theories of cognitive science hold that cognition is fundamentally probabilistic, but
people's explicit probability judgments often violate the laws of probability. Two recent …

Human probability judgments are both variable and subject to systematic biases. Most
probability judgment models treat variability and bias separately: a deterministic model …

People must often make inferences about, and decisions concerning, a highly complex and
unpredictable world, on the basis of sparse evidence. An “ideal” normative approach to such …

One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and
response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a …

Aeron T. Beck stated that cognition is the main factor in the onset and persistence of
emotions. He established CBT based on the scientific method. However, in recent years …