Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a coherent and systematic mechanism for
accounting for model uncertainty. It can be regarded as an direct application of Bayesian …

Since the democratic peace was 'rediscovered'in the 1970s, the phenomenon has become a
mainstream research agenda. Significant attention and page space has been dedicated to …

Since Beck, Katz, and Tucker (1998), the standard method for modeling time dependence in
binary data has been to incorporate time dummies or splined time in logistic regressions …

What are the possibilities for and conditions of global security in the 21st century? This book
provides an innovative study of future wars, crises and transformations of the global political …

Classical liberals such as Kant argued that expanding political participation and increasing
economic interdependence would promote peace among states. Recent empirical support …

The gravity model, long the empirical workhorse for modeling international trade, ignores
network dependencies in bilateral trade data, instead assuming that dyadic trade is …

The authors examine a standard gravity model of international commerce augmented to
include political as well as institutional influences on bilateral trade. Using annual data from …

Drawing on recent liberal peace and Asian security research, this article assesses the
relevance of prominent 'Kantian'hypotheses for understanding the international politics of …

Is trade a promoter of peace? Adam Smith, one of the earliest defenders of trade, worries
that commerce may instigate some perverse incentives, encouraging wars. The wealth that …

The effect of trade on military conflict is one of the most important questions in international
relations. Liberals argue that trade brings peace, neo-realists and neo-Marxists reason that …