This paper reviews the challenges faced by central banks in recent years in order to
evaluate their policy implications going forward. To highlight the genuine uncertainty …

We survey the historical record for two centuries on the connection between expansionary
fiscal policy and inflation. The relationship holds in wartime when fiscally stressed …

Policy rates have on aggregate been below the levels implied by the Taylor rule for most of
the period since the early 2000s in both advanced and emerging market economies. This …

The natural rate is an abstraction; like faith, it is seen by its works. One can only say that if
the bank policy succeeds in stabilizing prices, the bank rate must have been brought in line …

In the past ten years, researchers have explored the impact of data revisions in many
different contexts. Researchers have examined the properties of data revisions, how …

In the period from the floating of the exchange rate in June 1972 to the granting of
operational independence to the Bank of England in May 1997, UK monetary policy went …

We develop an estimated model of the US economy in which agents form expectations by
continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary …

The popular Taylor rule is meant to inform monetary policy in economies that are closed. Its
main open-economy alternative, ie, Ball's (In: JB Taylor (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules …

This paper revisits the issue of what factors produced the macroeconomic policies that led to
the Great Inflation of the 1970s. I emphasize that a satisfactory explanation should satisfy …

Notions of potential output and output gaps are crucial in many areas of economic policy.
Unfortunately, however, they are not observable. Indeed, important policy mistakes have …