Expert judgments are a necessary part of environmental management. Typically, experts are
defined by their qualifications, track record, professional standing, and experience. We …

Od Yogiego Berry do Henriego Poincarégo Rozdział 10: SKANDAL PROGNOZOWANIA O
niesprecyzowanej liczbie kochanków carycy Katarzyny Powrót ślepoty na Czarne Łabędzie …

За одно только последнее десятилетие человечество пережило ряд тяжелейших
катастроф, потрясений и катаклизмов, не укладывающихся в рамки самых …

Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such
aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation …

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can
produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly …

Social psychologists have long recognized the power of statisticized groups. When
individual judgments about some fact (eg, the unemployment rate for next quarter) are …

Abstract [Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 118 (1) of
Psychological Review (see record 2011-00732-004). The name of the philosopher Charles …

Our framework for understanding advice-taking in decision making rests on two theoretical
concepts that motivate the studies and serve to explain the findings. The first is egocentric …

Seeking advice is a basic practice in making real life decisions. Until recently, however, little
attention has been given to it in either empirical studies or theories of decision making. The …

Many studies have reported that the confidence people have in their judgments exceeds
their accuracy and that overconfidence increases with the difficulty of the task. However …