Scoring epidemiological forecasts on transformed scales
Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
[HTML][HTML] Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and the vaccination campaign in Italy by the SUIHTER model
N Parolini, G Ardenghi, A Quarteroni - Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022 - Elsevier
Several epidemiological models have been proposed to study the evolution of COVID-19
pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the …
pandemic. In this paper, we propose an extension of the SUIHTER model, to analyse the …
Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland
Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
Comparative assessment of methods for short-term forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions in England at the local level
Background Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …
Regional opening strategies with commuter testing and containment of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in Germany
Background Despite the vaccination process in Germany, a large share of the population is
still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we face the spread of novel variants. Until we …
still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we face the spread of novel variants. Until we …
Transformation of forecasts for evaluating predictive performance in an epidemiological context
Forecast evaluation is essential for the development of predictive epidemic models and can
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
inform their use for public health decision-making. Common scores to evaluate …
Trend estimation and short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide
Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, many dashboards have emerged as useful
tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making …
tools to monitor its evolution, inform the public, and assist governments in decision-making …
Mathematical modeling and estimation for next wave of COVID-19 in Poland
MK Arti, A Wilinski - Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk …, 2021 - Springer
We investigate the problem of mathematical modeling of new corona virus (COVID-19) in
Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to …
Poland and tries to predict the upcoming wave. A Gaussian mixture model is proposed to …
Retrospective evaluation of real-time estimates of global COVID-19 transmission trends and mortality forecasts
Since 8th March 2020 up to the time of writing, we have been producing near real-time
weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 …
weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 …
The contribution of epidemiological models to the description of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic
V Priesemann, M Meyer-Hermann, I Pigeot… - Bundesgesundheitsblatt …, 2021 - Springer
After the global outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, an infection dynamic of immense
extent developed. Since then, numerous measures have been taken to bring the infection …
extent developed. Since then, numerous measures have been taken to bring the infection …