For decades, households' subjective expectations elicited via surveys have been
considered meaningless because they often differ substantially from the forecasts of …

Households' and firms' subjective inflation expectations play a central role in
macroeconomic and intertemporal microeconomic models. We discuss how subjective …

Robo-advice uses big and open data to provide consumers with fully informed and rational-
expectation benchmarks in all realms of household finance, including consumption, saving …

Politics may color interpretations of facts, and thus perceptions of risk. We find that a higher
share of Trump voters in a county is associated with lower perceptions of risk during the …

We study how different forms of communication influence inflation expectations in a
randomized controlled trial using nearly 20,000 US individuals. We elicit individuals' inflation …

Consumers rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming
expectations about aggregate inflation. We use micro data that uniquely match individual …

We use a unique design feature of a survey of Italian firms to study the causal effect of
inflation expectations on firms' economic decisions. In the survey, a randomly chosen subset …

We investigate the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption using
administrative data on the universe of households in Norway. On the basis of identified …

Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals'
macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their …

We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between
cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of inflation expectations, and the consumption plans of …