A single coherent framework is proposed to synthesize long-standing research on 8
seemingly unrelated cognitive decision-making biases. During the past 6 decades …

Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly
stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a …

Od Yogiego Berry do Henriego Poincarégo Rozdział 10: SKANDAL PROGNOZOWANIA O
niesprecyzowanej liczbie kochanków carycy Katarzyny Powrót ślepoty na Czarne Łabędzie …

Human perceptual decisions are often described as optimal. Critics of this view have argued
that claims of optimality are overly flexible and lack explanatory power. Meanwhile …

За одно только последнее десятилетие человечество пережило ряд тяжелейших
катастроф, потрясений и катаклизмов, не укладывающихся в рамки самых …

The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of
everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called “On …

The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has
defined overconfidence:(a) overestimation of one's actual performance,(b) overplacement of …

The pattern of overconfidence and underconfidence observed in studies of intuitive
judgment is explained by the hypothesis that people focus on the strength or extremeness of …

BECAUSE PSYCHOLOGY systemati-cally explores human judgment, behavior, and well-
being, it can teach us important facts about how humans differ from the way tlhey are …

Psychological research indicates that people have a cognitive bias that leads them to
misinterpret new information as supporting previously held hypotheses. We show in a …