International monetary policy spillovers: Linkages between US and South American yield curves

IB Cavaca, R Meurer - International Review of Economics & Finance, 2021 - Elsevier
This paper investigates spillovers between the latent factors of the term structure of the
interest rates of the United States and selected South American countries. We show how …

Learning forecast-efficient yield curve factor decompositions with neural networks

PC Kauffmann, HH Takada, AT Terada, JM Stern - Econometrics, 2022 - mdpi.com
Most factor-based forecasting models for the term structure of interest rates depend on a
fixed number of factor loading functions that have to be specified in advance. In this study …

Modeling the yield curve of BRICS countries: Parametric vs. machine learning techniques

O Castello, M Resta - Risks, 2022 - mdpi.com
We compare parametric and machine learning techniques (namely: Neural Networks) for in–
sample modeling of the yield curve of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China …

Predicting the yield curve using forecast combinations

JF Caldeira, GV Moura, AAP Santos - Computational Statistics & Data …, 2016 - Elsevier
An examination of the statistical accuracy and economic value of modeling and forecasting
the term structure of interest rates using forecast combinations is considered. Five alternative …

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using nonparametric functional data analysis

JÃ Caldeira, H Torrent - Journal of Forecasting, 2017 - Wiley Online Library
In this paper we consider a novel procedure to forecasting the US zero coupon bond yields
for a continuum of maturities by using the methodology of nonparametric functional data …

[HTML][HTML] Forecasting the yield curve with the arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson–Siegel model: Brazilian evidence

JF Caldeira, GV Moura, AAP Santos, F Tourrucôo - EconomiA, 2016 - Elsevier
We assess the extent to which the imposition of a no-arbitrage restriction on the dynamic
Nelson–Siegel model helps obtaining more accurate forecasts of the term structure. For that …

Estimação da estrutura a termo da curva de juros no Brasil através de modelos paramétricos e não paramétricos

JF Caldeira - Análise Econômica, 2011 - seer.ufrgs.br
O presente trabalho compara os principais métodos de interpolação e ajuste da estrutura a
termo da curva de juros e apresenta os principais conceitos relativos às curvas de juros …

Measuring risk in fixed income portfolios using yield curve models

JF Caldeira, GV Moura, AAP Santos - Computational Economics, 2015 - Springer
We propose a novel approach to measure risk in fixed income portfolios in terms of value-at-
risk (VaR). We obtain closed-form expressions for the vector of expected bond returns and …

[PDF][PDF] Bond portfolio optimization: a dynamic heteroskedastic factor model approach

JF Caldeira, GV Moura, AAP Santos - Available at SSRN, 2012 - bcu.gub.uy
In this paper we use Markowitz's approach to optimize bond portfolios. We derive closed
form expressions for the vector of expected bond returns and for their conditional covariance …

[HTML][HTML] Кривые доходностей на низколиквидных рынках облигаций: особенности оценки

МС Макушкин, ВА Лапшин - Экономический журнал Высшей …, 2021 - cyberleninka.ru
Существует множество моделей оценки кривой бескупонных доходностей облигаций.
Эти модели хорошо подходят для развитых рынков, где обращается большое число …