Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation for quantiles
Model diagnostics and forecast evaluation are closely related tasks, with the former
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
concerning in-sample goodness (or lack) of fit and the latter addressing predictive …
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
The importance of investing in data, models, experiments, team science, and public trust to help policymakers prepare for the next pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about valuable insights regarding models, data, and
experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three …
experiments. In this narrative review, we summarised the existing literature on these three …
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US
Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific …
Collaborative hubs: making the most of predictive epidemic modeling
The COVID-19 pandemic has made it clear that epidemic models play an important role in
how governments and the public respond to infectious disease crises. Early in the …
how governments and the public respond to infectious disease crises. Early in the …
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent …
COVID-19. Pandemic surgery guidance
Based on high quality surgery and scientific data, scientists and surgeons are committed to
protecting patients as well as healthcare staff and hereby provide this Guidance to address …
protecting patients as well as healthcare staff and hereby provide this Guidance to address …
Comparing human and model-based forecasts of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland
Forecasts based on epidemiological modelling have played an important role in shaping
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
public policy throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. This modelling combines knowledge …
Comparative assessment of methods for short-term forecasts of COVID-19 hospital admissions in England at the local level
Background Forecasting healthcare demand is essential in epidemic settings, both to inform
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …
situational awareness and facilitate resource planning. Ideally, forecasts should be robust …
Prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases by HAR models with growth rates and vaccination rates in top eight affected countries: Bootstrap improvement
E Hwang - Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2022 - Elsevier
This paper is devoted to modeling and predicting COVID-19 confirmed cases through a
multiple linear regression. Especially, prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases are …
multiple linear regression. Especially, prediction intervals of the COVID-19 cases are …