[HTML][HTML] Statistical physics approaches to the complex Earth system

J Fan, J Meng, J Ludescher, X Chen, Y Ashkenazy… - Physics reports, 2021 - Elsevier
Global warming, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying
socioeconomic disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear …

Anticipating critical transitions

M Scheffer, SR Carpenter, TM Lenton, J Bascompte… - science, 2012 - science.org
Tipping points in complex systems may imply risks of unwanted collapse, but also
opportunities for positive change. Our capacity to navigate such risks and opportunities can …

Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

N Boers - Nature Climate Change, 2021 - nature.com
Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a major ocean current
system transporting warm surface waters toward the northern Atlantic, has been suggested …

Generic indicators of ecological resilience: inferring the chance of a critical transition

M Scheffer, SR Carpenter, V Dakos… - Annual Review of …, 2015 - annualreviews.org
Ecological resilience is the ability of a system to persist in the face of perturbations. Although
resilience has been a highly influential concept, its interpretation has remained largely …

Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data

V Dakos, SR Carpenter, WA Brock, AM Ellison… - PloS one, 2012 - journals.plos.org
Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial
markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting …

Early-warning signals for critical transitions

M Scheffer, J Bascompte, WA Brock, V Brovkin… - Nature, 2009 - nature.com
Complex dynamical systems, ranging from ecosystems to financial markets and the climate,
can have tipping points at which a sudden shift to a contrasting dynamical regime may …

Stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review and synthesis

W Weijer, W Cheng, SS Drijfhout… - Journal of …, 2019 - Wiley Online Library
The notion that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can have more than
one stable equilibrium emerged in the 1980s as a powerful hypothesis to explain rapid …

[HTML][HTML] Network resilience

X Liu, D Li, M Ma, BK Szymanski, HE Stanley, J Gao - Physics Reports, 2022 - Elsevier
Many systems on our planet shift abruptly and irreversibly from the desired state to an
undesired state when forced across a “tipping point”. Some examples are mass extinctions …

Early warning of climate tipping points

TM Lenton - Nature climate change, 2011 - nature.com
A tipping point occurs when an external forcing causes a qualitative change in a system.
Human-induced climate change could push several large elements of the climate system …

Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment

SR Carpenter, JJ Cole, ML Pace, R Batt, WA Brock… - Science, 2011 - science.org
Catastrophic ecological regime shifts may be announced in advance by statistical early
warning signals such as slowing return rates from perturbation and rising variance. The …