In this article we propose a variance estimator for the OLS estimator as well as for nonlinear
estimators such as logit, probit, and GMM. This variance estimator enables cluster-robust …

Salgınlar tarihin her döneminde toplumsal etki yaratmıştır. Yakın bir tarihe kadar salgınların
neden kaynaklandığı konusundaki bilgi eksikliği salgınların toplum üzerindeki etkisini …

A dive into the origins, management, and uses and misuses of sovereign debt through the
ages. Public debts have exploded to levels unprecedented in modern history as …

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction applying machine learning
techniques on macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlinear …

This article surveys the recent empirical literature on historical banking crises, defined as
events taking place before 1980. Advances in data collection and identification have …

A new edition of the leading textbook on the economic history of Britain since
industrialization. Combining the expertise of more than thirty leading historians and …

Are global city office markets inherently unstable? This examination of office markets in
major world cities analyses the flows of capital that create urban form, the nature of …

We consider public debt from a long-term historical perspective, showing how the purposes
for which governments borrow have evolved over time. Periods when debt-to-GDP ratios …

Nineteenth-century Brazil's constitutional monarchy credibly committed to repay sovereign
debt, borrowing repeatedly in international and domestic capital markets without default. Yet …

This paper proposes an original and unified toolbox to evaluate financial crisis early-
warning systems (EWS). It presents four main advantages. First, it is a model free method …