Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects

C Deser, F Lehner, KB Rodgers, T Ault… - Nature Climate …, 2020 - nature.com
Internal variability in the climate system confounds assessment of human-induced climate
change and imposes irreducible limits on the accuracy of climate change projections …

El Niño–southern oscillation complexity

A Timmermann, SI An, JS Kug, FF Jin, W Cai… - Nature, 2018 - nature.com
El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and
weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are …

[HTML][HTML] Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming

T Geng, F Jia, W Cai, L Wu, B Gan, Z Jing, S Li… - Nature, 2023 - nature.com
Abstract Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter,–, whereas La
Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer,,–. Relative to single …

Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñas

B Wang, W Sun, C Jin, X Luo, YM Yang, T Li… - Nature Climate …, 2023 - nature.com
Five out of six La Niña events since 1998 have lasted two to three years. Why so many long-
lasting multiyear La Niña events have emerged recently and whether they will become more …

Windows of opportunity for skillful forecasts subseasonal to seasonal and beyond

A Mariotti, C Baggett, EA Barnes… - Bulletin of the …, 2020 - journals.ametsoc.org
There is high demand and a growing expectation for predictions of environmental conditions
that go beyond 0–14-day weather forecasts with outlooks extending to one or more seasons …

Overemphasized role of preceding strong El Niño in generating multi-year La Niña events

JW Kim, JY Yu, B Tian - Nature Communications, 2023 - nature.com
Previous studies have emphasized the significance of a strong El Niño preceding La Niña
(LN) in the formation of multi-year LN events due to the slow recharge-discharge ocean heat …

Single-and multi-year ENSO events controlled by pantropical climate interactions

JW Kim, JY Yu - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 2022 - nature.com
To better understand the diverse temporal evolutions of observed El Niño‒Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) events, which are characterized as single-or multi-year, this study …

The Pacific meridional mode and ENSO: A review

DJ Amaya - Current Climate Change Reports, 2019 - Springer
Abstract Purpose of Review This paper reviews recent progress in understanding of the
North Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) and its influence on the timing, magnitude, flavor …

Triple‐Dip La Niñas in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023: Impact of mean state changes

X Li, ZZ Hu, MJ McPhaden, C Zhu… - Journal of Geophysical …, 2023 - Wiley Online Library
This study compares the evolution of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies as well as
predictions for the two most recent triple‐dip La Niña events in 1998–2001 and 2020–2023 …

Multi-year El Niño events tied to the North Pacific oscillation

R Ding, YH Tseng, E Di Lorenzo, L Shi, J Li… - Nature …, 2022 - nature.com
Abstract Multi-year El Niño events induce severe and persistent floods and droughts
worldwide, with significant socioeconomic impacts, but the causes of their long-lasting …